Weather2X

Challenge

Denmark has set an official target of eliminating fossil fuel use by 2050, with an interim goal of achieving a 70% CO2 reduction by 2030. To meet this target, it is critical to deploy vast amounts of renewable energy from wind and solar sources while integrating this production with hydrogen and other fuel production. Due to the high temporal variability of wind and solar energy, accurate forecasts are essential to maintain grid stability, optimize operational planning, maintenance, energy consumption, energy trading, and hydrogen and other green fuel production.

In recent years, the expansion of wind and solar energy has, on several occasions, already exhausted all Danish system services, underscoring the urgent need for action.

Solution

In the Weather2X innovation project, a consortium comprising Vattenfall, Ørsted, DMI, DTU, ENFOR, and Energy Cluster Denmark aims to improve the accuracy of renewable energy forecasts by an ambitious 10%. The enhanced production forecasts will be leveraged to optimize Power-to-X (P2X) processes, resulting in reduced imbalances, lower costs for system services, and enabling further expansion of renewable energy.

The project adopts a holistic approach by involving the entire value chain:

• Meteorological institutes (DMI and ECMWF)
• Electricity forecast providers (ENFOR)
• Renewable energy producers (Vattenfall and Ørsted)
• P2X producers (Ørsted)

Key innovations include:

• Utilization of previously unavailable wind and solar data from Vattenfall and Ørsted to refine current weather models.
• Development of new power forecasting models with higher resolution and frequency tailored to the current and future electricity markets.

Impact

The primary outcome of the Weather2X innovation project will be an enhanced forecasting model for wind and solar energy, maintained and operated by ENFOR. Compared to ENFOR's existing forecasts, the new model will deliver significantly better performance, as measured by RMSE/MAE scores, along with numerous additional benefits from individual components developed during the project.