Accurate Weather Forecasts Are the Key to Cheaper Green Energy

More green electricity in the grid and fewer thermal power plants have caused balancing costs to skyrocket. The innovation project Weather2X is doing something about it.

DKK 2.4 billion.

That’s what it now costs, according to Energinet, to balance the Danish electricity grid and ensure the lights stay on when Danes flip the switch.

This is three times more than the DKK 800 million it cost just a few years ago. And with an ever-growing share of solar and wind power in the grid, there’s no sign of prices reversing - because the fluctuating nature of green electricity makes it harder to balance production and consumption.

The bill is passed on by electricity providers to consumers and producers, many of whom are now opening their electricity bills with increasing concern.

“Energinet has changed the way they settle imbalances, which has caused costs to skyrocket,” says Jan Hvidberg, Senior Lead Analyst at Ørsted:

“We’re entering a reality with significant swings in imbalance costs, and our risk as a balance-responsible party has increased dramatically. We can either pass that risk onto our customers - leading to more expensive renewable energy - or we can improve our forecasts to reduce both costs and risks. And that’s exactly what Irene and the Weather2X project are helping us with,” he says.

Absolutely Good News!

“Irene” refers to Irene Livia Kruse, Research Scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). In the innovation project Weather2X, she collaborates with Ørsted and Enfor to develop improved forecasts for solar radiation - allowing more accurate predictions of electricity output from solar panels. The project is supported by the Energy Technology Development and Demonstration Program (EUDP).

Instead of weather models that update every six hours, Irene Livia Kruse can now update forecasts every 15 minutes - and that makes a real difference:

“If a cloud passes over a solar park on Samsø, it affects electricity production. That requires adjustments to the grid,” she explains:

“For producers, it matters a great deal whether they have to operate on a six-hour-old forecast—or whether they can adjust their strategy every 15 minutes.”

As the balance-responsible party for 80,000 solar installations, Ørsted is very aware of the impact. Currently, they receive production data with a one-week delay.

“The technology Irene has developed lets us respond every 15 minutes. That’s a huge difference - for both our risk exposure and our bottom line,” says Jan Hvidberg, calling the improved forecasts “absolutely good news”:

“I’d rather have it half-implemented today than wait for a perfect solution tomorrow. It’s that important—it already creates massive value,” he says.

“We’re working closely with DMI and Enfor in Weather2X and pushing to get it deployed. These forecasts will have an immediate impact on our operating costs from day one, so I hope we’ll see it implemented and in active use very soon.”

"Renewable Energy Is Weather – So You Can’t Overstate the Importance of Forecast Accuracy"

Weather forecasts are a major part of Danish life. A regular segment in the news, a safe go-to topic in small talk—even the color of the weather map can spark political debate.

But we could be getting much more out of weather forecasts than we currently are, says Mikkel Westenholz, CEO of energy forecasting company Enfor:

“In their current form, Danish weather forecasts are mainly meant to remind people to bring a raincoat or tell the road crews when to salt the roads. But precise knowledge of upcoming weather has far more valuable applications than that,” he says.

Mikkel Westenholz believes accurate weather forecasts hold immense value—especially as we transition to weather-dependent renewable energy.

“We are in the midst of a radical transformation of our society, where renewable energy must be integrated as much as possible. Renewable energy is weather. That’s why the importance of accurate forecasts cannot be overstated,” he emphasizes.

Enfor translates weather knowledge into energy forecasts and, as a partner in Weather2X, acts as a bridge between DMI and Ørsted. The project has already produced impressive results - with more to come.

“For both producers and utilities, ongoing improvement in forecast precision is essential. It’s about calibrating on the minute scale - the very short term - and reducing forecast errors. Both will make renewable energy more valuable and accelerate the green transition,” says Mikkel Westenholz.

Latest news

All news

Aegir Insights is taking a significant step in its development with the expansion of its Aegir Quant™ software. The tool now goes beyond offshore wind to include onshore wind, solar PV, energy storage, and hybrid energy systems.

With this move, the company shifts from being an offshore wind specialist to offering a full-spectrum decision-support tool across renewable technologies.

According to CEO Scott Urquhart, this expansion provides the market with a unified and standardized way to evaluate projects across technologies; a solution increasingly in demand as energy systems grow more complex and hybrid projects emerge as a key part of future energy infrastructure.

“The next phase of Aegir is about empowering the decision-makers shaping the energy transition”, Scott Urquhart says:

“By broadening Aegir Quant’s capabilities across all major renewable technologies, we’re helping investors and policymakers capture new value and build resilience in the clean-energy system.”

Building on collaboration

Over the past several years, Aegir Insights has established a global position as a provider of investment intelligence to developers, suppliers, investors, and public authorities.

The new version of Aegir Quant™ combines detailed techno-economic modelling with financial analysis, enabling stakeholders to benchmark, optimize, and finance next-generation projects with greater confidence.

The expansion builds on REALISE; a two-year research and development effort carried out in close collaboration with Vattenfall, the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), and Energy Cluster Denmark funded by EUDP, a program under Denmark’s national energy agency.

The partnership helped mature and validate the technology and is a fine example of how collaboration can accelerate progress in the green transition:

The REALISE project provided a solid foundation, with the combined work from industry and academia. We are now collaborating with forward-thinking partners across Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific to apply the expanded Aegir Quant™ capabilities to real-world portfolios — focusing on bankability, portfolio optimization, and system resilience.” says Rikke Winther Nørgaard, CCO at Aegir Insights.

With the updated software, Aegir Insights aims to become the natural reference point for investment decisions in a sector where integration, flexibility, and system understanding are essential — and where hybrid solutions combining wind, solar, and storage may hold the key to higher returns and a more resilient energy system.

“Hybridization is redefining the economics of renewables and strengthening global energy resilience. From the point of starting the REALISE innovation project two years ago, we have seen ever increasing interest and adoption of hybrid renewable + storage projects.As this is just the beginning of the trend, we are excited to continue cooperating closely with developers and investors to improve bankability and returns on hybrid projects”says Scott Urquhart, CEO at Aegir.

02.18.26From offshore wind to full renewable energy systems

The Danish startup Gridturn, which extends the life of used electric car batteries by converting them into certified battery energy storage systems (BESS), has been awarded EUR 75,000 in support from the Women TechEU program.

The support is given to female-led European technology companies with the potential to deliver significant innovation and sustainable transformation – and it is precisely this combination that makes Gridturn CEO Louise Witt Sengeløv happy:

"There is definitely no queue for the ladies' room when you go to energy-related conferences! There are few women in tech, but it is just a barrier that is extra motivating to break through. The support is a nice recognition and very inspiring for further work," she says.

Challenging the status quo

Gridturn's solution reduces waste and the need for new materials. This is what is needed:

"40 percent of the world's conflicts since the 1960s are related to the fight for raw materials. 90 percent of our biodiversity loss is related to raw material extraction, and we recycle far too little. In Europe we are at 12 percent circularity, in Denmark we are down to 4%. We must succeed in changing that," she says:

"At the same time, it is important that we make it economically sustainable. And yes, it may be difficult, but we have to do better and challenge the status quo," she says.

Gridturn's solution is to extend the life of electric car batteries so that they also have value when they are no longer suitable for electric cars:

"The range is crucial for a car battery, and therefore a reduction to 80 or 85 percent capacity effectively helps to retire the battery. But even with 80 percent capacity, the battery can still function and bring value if you place it in a different context. The batteries will do very well in our system. The ideal senior life," she says.

From waste to infrastructure

Gridturn recycles the batteries into battery energy storage systems (BESS), which integrate with existing energy solutions and help optimize consumption and balance the electricity grid.

This results in significant CO₂ savings, and the circularity is optimal: waste is turned into energy infrastructure.

Gridturn is now entering the market with a certified and scalable product line. A significant development for a startup that has been part of the Beyond Beta accelerator course in Energy Cluster Denmark.

“We hold the key to Europe’s future energy independence. By recycling batteries, we create a solution that is both greener, integrable and economically sustainable. I also hope that our journey can inspire more women to start deep tech companies – my two daughters are a big part of the motivation to lead this development,” says Louise Witt Sengeløv.

In addition to the funding, Gridturn will have access to a European mentoring and acceleration program that will strengthen business, technology and scaling.

02.12.26Gridturn receives European tech grant for groundbreaking solution for recycling electric car batteries

In order to examine the condition of wind turbine blades, inspections of blade damages are usually carried out when the turbine has been stopped. In the AQUADA-GO project, the partners have developed a drone technology for automated, contact-free, real-time blade damage detection, while the turbine is spinning. Inspections that are done without stopping the turbine’s normal operation can help save turbine downtime. Now, for the first time ever, the operational concept has been successfully demonstrated offshore.

“We have proven that it is possible to autonomously inspect offshore wind turbines with a drone of a certain size equipped with a visual camera, while the turbine is in operation. This is a major accomplishment for us. We have worked on everything from developing drone software and hardware to mission planning and online data infrastructure. Now, we have a commercially ready solution that can be tailored to wind farm operators’ needs and make inspections easier, faster and more cost-effective,” says Jesper Smit, CEO, Quali Drone.

Drone-based blade inspection delivers significant savings

The core idea of the project is to combine drone technology with thermography and computer vision, enabling detection of surface damage and potential subsurface fractures on operational offshore wind turbine blades. This saves wind farm operators considerable costs due to increased efficiency, while also reducing CO₂ emissions and improving inspection safety.

The new technology has been successfully demonstrated several times onshore by the project partners, which, in addition to Quali Drone and RWE, include Statkraft, TotalEnergies, DTU and Energy Cluster Denmark. Most recently, the solution has been demonstrated offshore with visual drone footage of blade damage on the surface at Rødsand 2 Offshore Wind Farm, operated by RWE since 2010 and located south off the coast of Lolland, Denmark.

“For the first time, we have successfully carried out a drone inspection of offshore wind turbines in operation. This is good news for the entire wind industry. Through the technology developed in AQUADA-GO, we can see the potential of monitoring blade conditions without stopping the offshore turbine. This could help to increase efficiency in our production of green electricity and to further improve safety for our employees. By using drones for autonomous inspections, we expect that downtimes and costs can be significantly reduced in the long run,” says Marcus Mejborn, General Manager of Rødsand 2 Offshore Wind Farm, RWE.

AQUADA-GO technology and AI model show great potential

The project is based on the AQUADA technology developed in DTU Wind Energy’s laboratory. DTU has developed an AI model that helps the drone automatically identify wind turbine blade abnormalities to indicate critical damage using AI algorithms and infrared imaging. The AI model, which is trained and improved with new inspection data each time the drone is deployed at wind farms, shows great potential.

“We have developed an AI model that uses deep learning algorithms and computer-vision technology based on thermomechanical models to assist the drone in detecting blade defects – both on the blade surface and below it. We have tested the technology multiple times at onshore wind farms operated by DTU, RWE and Statkraft, and each campaign has fed the AI model with new data that has made it better. We are very pleased with the results and see great potential for future implementation within the wind industry,” says Xiao CHEN, Associate Professor and Head of Section, DTU Wind and Energy Systems, and Project Technical Lead in AQUADA-GO.

Facts about the project

The AQUADA-GO innovation project runs from 2022 to March 2026 with a total budget of DKK 17,796,010 and is supported by EUDP – the Energy Technology Development and Demonstration Program. The project partners include Quali Drone, the Technical University of Denmark, RWE, Statkraft, TotalEnergies and Energy Cluster Denmark.